NFL Week 3 Picks & Previews

September 24th, 2022

Jason Grad

Sep 24, 2022

Week 3’s Featured Games

Miami Dolphins Vs Buffalo Bills, 1:00 EST

Line: Bills -5.5, 53

Bills Defensive Cheat Mode

After their 31-10 road victory over the defending champs in week 1, I wrote about the dominance of the Buffalo Bill’s offence and how every NFL will struggle to slow them down. But despite them putting up 41 points against the Titans in week 2, the takeaway from that game was Bill’s defence.

Buffalo held Ryan Tannehill to just 117 yards passing with 2 INTs including a pick-6. They also stifled elite RB Derrick Henry to just 25 yards rushing on 13 carries. The combination of those types of numbers is almost unheard of in today’s NFL.

The Bill’s defence had a masterful performance on Monday night, particularly by their secondary who confused and frustrated the Titans all night. Their top-tier coaching staff has nearly perfected the cover-2 defence package against today’s NFL focused on the passing attack.

The Tua Attack

The Dolphins are also 2-0 this season after an impressive 21-point 4th quarter comeback over the Ravens. As impressive as Tua Tagovailao was in that game, I’m inclined to hang that collapse on the Raven’s defence more than giving credit to Miami. Tua put up a staggering 469 yards and 6 TDs in that game, but much of it came in the 4th quarter against a soft-looking Ravens defence.

The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is arguably the most lethal currently in the NFL. But Buffalo has already dominated the pass-heavy threat from the Rams and they will be ready for the Dolphins this week as well. Miami will find more success if they can first establish their rushing attack, but if Derrick Henry could only manage 25 yards, the less talented Dolphins RBs aren’t likely to fair much better.

My Pick: Bills (-5.5)

After dominating two consecutive weeks on primetime to start the season, the public’s view of the Bills is at all-time highs. But is this justified? I would suggest yes. Buffalo will likely be favourites in every game for the rest of the season including their week 5 visit to KC. The way this team is playing on both sides of the ball, we may be just at the beginning of this hype train that is picking up speed.

Miami is talented enough to keep this game close, but there will not be any miracle comebacks against the Bill’s defence.

Line: Bucs -1, 42

These two teams have not played since the NFC Championship game in 2020 with the Bucs of course prevailing and winning the Super Bowl that season. That was a matchup of two of the best QB in the NFL in 2020, but is that still the case?

The elite QB matchup?

I am confident in predicting Aaron Rodgers will not win his third consecutive MVP award this season. There are simply too many other quality QBs in the NFL right now to challenge Rodger. Through two weeks, Rodgers' numbers are slightly concerning with only 2 TD passes and 7 sacks. Aaron is clearly missing Davante Adams as his primary target and the offensive line hasn’t done him many favours so far this season either.

Tom Brady’s days of challenging for MVP are also over as he is now entering the phase of a game manager, a similar situation to which Peyton Manning successfully handled late in his career. Tom’s completion rate is just 59.0 through two weeks and he has never had a full season with this rate below 60%. Brady was listed on the Buc’s injury list earlier this week with a finger injury but is expected to play.

The Buc’s offence only has 2 touchdowns through two weeks and now they are without Mike Evans for this matchup so things may not get easier this week.

My Pick: Under (42)

The Bucs’ defence only allowed 13 points in two weeks and they also have a pick-6 in the other direction. I expect to see pressure up the middle on Rodgers who will struggle to find open receivers. Mike Evans is suspended for this game as well, taking away a key target for Brady.

There is a major trend through two weeks with about 68% of all games going under the total so far this season. Everything points to another defensive struggle in this matchup.

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